Promises Made

In 2011 a research group started tracking the promises (Polimeter) kept by political parties at the Federal level. It may surprise many as politicians are known are liars by many but both Governments that have been in power since then have done a very good job of keeping their promises.

From 2011 to 2015 the Harper Conservative Government either fully met or partially met 85% of the promises they made during the 2011 election campaign. From 2015 to 2019 the Trudeau Liberal Government either fully met or partially met 92% of the promises they made during the 2015 election campaign. This is an important statistic to know as all parties are out there making tons of promises for the upcoming election.

In the end, however, the researchers found the Trudeau and the last Harper government had the highest rates of follow-through on their campaign promises of any Canadian government over the last 35 years.

Overall, governments in Canada have good records when it comes to keeping promises, Petry said. – National Post

National Post article about the Research Study

Trudeau Polimeter Tracker

Immigration

As I’ve done a blog post recently on Canada’s Immigration Policies I will keep this section very short. The Liberal Government passed a bill very early into their tenure to repeal Bill C-51 of the previous Conservative Government which made it harder to become a Canadian Citizen and also gave the Government the power to take away the citizenship of many Canadians under certain circumstances.  Simply put, without high rates of immigration Canada’s population will decline to decline. Pair that with the fact that the unemployment rate right now is at one of the lowest level it has ever been in Canadian history, we really need skilled immigrants. Under the Liberal Government, our immigration numbers have grown significantly. This year Canada is expected to welcome 300,000 immigrants (nearly 1% of our population) to our country. Approximately 191,600 of these immigrants (~64%) came in through economic immigration (skilled workers).

There have been a lot of myths spread about the number of refugees Canada takes in and the amount of support the Government provides these refugees. According to the United Nations in 2018 Canada resettled more refugees than any other country in the world by bringing in 28,100 of global 92,400 refugees with over two-thirds of these refugees coming through private sponsorship rather than Government sponsorship.

Although not technically related to current immigration, the Government under the Liberals also issued an official apology for the komagata maru incident that happened in 1914. There were many other similar official well overdue apologies issued during this term.

Financial Post: All the reasons why Canada needs immigration — and more of it

Economy

Many Central Banks around the world have started cutting interest rates because of their economies have entered a recession and generally speaking the Canadian economy typically follows route, especially when the EU and US economy are in a downturn. However, month after month people looking for those negative economic numbers out of Canada are shocked and disappointed.

As I mentioned earlier, Canada’s unemployment rate continues to either hit or sit around record lows and shows no signs of letting up. For most of the year the Canadian dollar has been the top performing currency in the G10. Some economists argue that by running budget deficits over the past four years, the Liberal Government has been investing in the Canadian economy and that is why we are riding high while others are not. Other economists argue that by continuing to run deficits it will be harder for Canada to fight back from a recession when it does come. I think the fact that the Canadian economy grew by 3.7% (well above Analyst expectations) in the second quarter of 2019 compared to the second quarter of 2018 (April to June) and has also performed very well in most months since, we must be doing something right. For comparison the US economy grew by 2.0% during the same period.

Budget

Since coming to power, the Liberals have rolled out some changes to our tax system. Based on the numbers that have been released the top 1% paid slightly more in taxes in 2017 compared to 2014 and everyone else paid a little less. This resulted in a small increase in overall tax revenues while allowing the middle class and below to pay less. There was also changes made to corporate and small business taxes and tax credits. As promised in 2015, the Liberals cut small business tax (a small business has less than $500,000 a year in revenue) from 10.5% to 9%. However, at the same time they made it harder for small businesses to simply give family members a portion of their profit thereby decreasing corporate profits and reducing your overall company tax unless you could show these family members were actually adding value to the business. On the corporate side there weren’t any major changes to the taxes but when the US rolled out a major corporate tax cut (dropped from 29.8% to 18.7%) the Liberals responded with a $16 billion competitiveness plan which they said would effectively drop the corporate tax rate from 17% to 13.8%.

Other than the inverted yield curve, the Canadian economy is showing practically no signs of a recession. All this despite the fact that oil and gas industry makes up a significant part of our economy and oil prices continue to sit very low. Canada is missing out on $130 billion a year to our economy with Alberta’s economy lagging behind. We may not be headed towards a balanced budget but our debt to GDP ratio is getting better every year regardless, meaning if a recession did hit then there should still be plenty of room to run temporarily larger deficits to boost the economy paired with cutting interest rates.

Environment

In April, the federal carbon tax came into effect for all provinces that decided not to impose one up to the federal standards. The federal carbon tax was based on similar carbon taxes that have been rolled out not only around the world but also in BC. In 2008, BC became the first jurisdiction in North America to roll out a broad-based carbon tax. A recent study has shown that the carbon tax has kept BCs greehouse gas (GHG) levels at essentially the same level as 2007 while the BC economy has grown significantly (at times BC was the strongest economy in Canada) and produced and exported significant amounts of coal.

Although the carbon tax may not be enough to hit the emission numbers Canada needs to hit, it is a step in the right direction. BC’s carbon tax is considered so effective because it was gradually brought in. Starting at $5 per tonne in 2008, hitting $30 a tonne by 2012 and to meet federal requirements $40 ($0.0889 per litre of gas) a tonne in 2019. The federal carbon tax is expected to reduce GHGs 50-60 million tonnes by 2022.

While many environmentalists applaud the Liberals for rolling out the carbon tax (while also saying a lot more needs to be done), most criticize the Liberals for another move they have made. This May the Government bought the Trans Canada Mountain Pipeline that will allow triple the capacity of oil to be shipped from Alberta to the BC coast. Environmentalists say that this will increase the activity in the oil sands thus increasing Canada’s GHG levels instead of decreasing them. The Liberals say not only will this pipeline benefit our economy but it actually benefits the environment as well. They say that Alberta oil sands will continue to increase production regardless but instead just ship more oil by rail. Pipeline capacity has been full for sometime so shipments by rail are increasing rapidly. In 2017, the oil industry shipped approximately 140,000 barrels by rail per day. In 2018, the amount of oil being shipped by rail was approximately 300,000 barrels per day. In early 2019, then Premier of Alberta Notley committed to buying enough rail cars to ship an additional 120,000 barrels per day. Because of this the Liberals say not only will this solve Canadian Oil Problems but it will also actually help the environment.

Housing

The Liberals rolled out a their $40 billion Housing Benefit Plan which aims to cut homelessness by 50%, build 100,00 new units, repair 300,000 existing units, providing 300,000 households with financial assistance so they don’t lose their homes, ensuring 385,000 households don’t lose their existing affordable homes and more. They also rolled out a first time home buyers incentive helping qualifying first time home buyers with 5 to 10% of their down payment.

Anita wants to buy a new home for $400,000.
Under the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, Anita can apply to receive $40,000 in a shared equity mortgage (10% of the cost of a new home) from the Government of Canada. This lowers the amount she needs to borrow and reduces her monthly expenses.
As a result, Anita’s mortgage is $228 less a month or $2,736 a year. – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

While most of these items have made it easier for individuals to either keep their homes or get a new home, stricter mortgage rules also made it more difficult to get a mortgage. This rule changes were designed to increase individual Canadian’s exponentially increasing personal debt and ensure with rising interest rates, no Canadian would have to declare bankruptcy because they could no longer afford to pay their mortgage. The side effect of this was people qualifying for smaller amounts when going for a mortgage thus making it harder to buy a home in some markets. It also had a secondary side effect of slowing down housing markets across the country and adding to other pressures causing housing prices to decrease further in some markets like Vancouver. The benchmark rate to qualify for a mortgage was decreased by 25 basis points (0.25%) earlier this year and should alleviate should of the pressure added by these changes.

Health Care

For Health Care it is luckily fairly simple what the Liberals did.

1. Increased funding to the Public Health Agency of Canada by $15 million in 2016-2017
2. Increased the options and availability of mental health services, particularly focused on high quality options.
3. Began the process cross-provincial group to collaborate on health innovation which will work on drug prices, mental health and home care
4. Restored a program that provided temporary and limited benefits to refugees

Education

There was nothing major regarding education completed by the Liberals in the past 4 years.

Gun Control

The primary achievement related to gun control for the Liberals was Bill C-71.

The bill primarily covers non-restricted rifles and shotguns, with renewed requirements for validation of licences before the sale or transfer of long guns and mandatory record keeping for gun dealers and retailers.

Bill C-71 also extends background checks for licence applications and renewals — which could extend back for a lifetime instead of a five-year check under the previous law.

The legislation, however, also repeals Conservative amendments to the Criminal Code that gave cabinet the power to overrule RCMP classifications for restricted and prohibited firearms. – iPolitics

Indigenous

This is an issue too complicated to breakdown in just a simple few paragraphs because there is so much going on. So instead I will just list all the promises Justin Trudeau and the Liberals had made in regards to the First Nations and where the promise was kept, partially kept or in progress with a link on further details. Please note all this whole section is from Polimeter.

1. Invest $300 million in additional annual funding for the First Nations education system for kindergarten through grade 12 programs. – In Progress
2. Invest $500 million over 2015 to 2018 for building and refurbishing First Nations schools. – Completed
3. Invest $50 million in additional annual funding to the Post-Secondary Student Support Program. – Broken
4. Provide new funding to help Indigenous communities promote and preserve Indigenous languages and cultures. – Completed
5. Develop a Métis Economic Development Strategy with $25 million funding over five years. – Completed
6. Establish a federal claims process that recognizes Métis self-government and resolves outstanding claims. – Broken
7. Make permanent the funding available to provincial Métis communities for Métis identification and registration. – In Progress
8. Enact the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. – Broken
9. End boil-water advisories within five years for 93 communities on First Nations reserves currently affected by poor water quality. – In Progress
10. Fund the Freedom Road project for Shoal Lake 40 First Nation. – Completed
11. Guarantee that First Nation communities have a veto over natural resource development in their territories. – Broken
12. Immediately adopt the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP). – Broken
13. Immediately lift the two percent cap on funding for First Nations programs. – Broken
14. Implement the objectives of the Kelowna Accord. – Not Started
15. Launch a national public inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls in Canada. – Completed
16. Review, repeal and amend all existing laws that do not respect Indigenous rights or that were passed without proper consultation. – Not Started
17. The Prime Minister will meet with First Nations, Métis Nation, and Inuit leaders at least once every year. – Completed

Global Status

There is no doubt that many people around the world love Canadians. It’s no surprise that global Canadian stereotypes are about how much we say “sorry”, “eh”, “thank you”. Bianca Andreescu went viral because she apologized to the fans in the stadium after she beat Serena Williams in the US Open since they were cheering for her. Canada and many major cities in Canada have consistently ranked highly in many global rankings for best places to live or quality of life. However, where do we sit on the global stage in terms of influence?

In 2011 and then even more so in 2015, many people said Canada had lost it’s place on the global stage and had fallen significantly behind. Since then under the Liberal Government has said they will make dramatic changes and bring Canada back to the global stage. In 2017 a global Ipsos poll ranked Canada as having the most positive influence on global affairs. With US taking a major step back in global affairs since Donald Trump, this has opened the space for Canada to take a big step forward. Canada has been making it’s voice heard loud and clear on global issues whether they be about Free Trade and the World Trade Council, the United Nations, human right issues or climate change. They have also been refocusing our global foreign aid to the countries that need it the most and with a focus on Maternal, Newborn and Child Health.

Scandals/Ethics

The last 4 years were not without any scandals. There are 2 major scandals that took place over this last term and one of them happening very recently. The SNC-Lavalin scandal is a very long and complex one so rather than going into it I will point you to the 2 part post I wrote about it. Take a look here:

SNC-Lavalin Scandal – Part 1

SNC-Lavalin Scandal – Part 2

The second major scandal happened in January 2017. In late 2016, Justin Trudeau was essentially gifted a trip by Aga Khan. Aga Khan has a private Island in the Bahamas, Trudeau and his family took a trip free of charge to this island but Aga Khan also gifted Trudeau a bag while Trudeau gifted him a sweater. Although we do not know the value of this bag, we do know it was under the value required to pay duty when returning to Canada ($800). This was deemed an ethics violation and a judge earlier this year ordered the Lobbying Commissioner to investigate any lobbying violations.

Next Steps

This post gives a fairly extensive breakdown on what the Liberal party has done over the past 4 years. Although important to understand it is also important to understand all party platforms in order to make an informed voting decision. CBC and Macleans both do an extensive breakdown of all the party platforms and should provide you with ample decision on who to vote for. I would recommend reading both. I also recommend reading the National Observers article that breaks down in detail each parties plan for the Economy and Environment and gives them a grade.

CBC Election Platform Guide

Macleans Election Platform Guide

National Observer Environmental and Economy Election Platform Grading

Are you still confused on who to vote for? I highly recommend taking a look at the CBC vote compass tool. This tool allows you to fill out a 5 to 10 minute survey and will tell you which party your personal views best align with.

Sources: National Post; Financial Post; Financial Post; Financial Post; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; Trudeau Metre; The Atlantic; UNHCR; Immigration; Baystreet; Global News; Global News; CTV News; KRP; IRPP; The Tyee; Government of BC; iPolitics; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Star; BBC; Forbes; Ipsos; CMHC;

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Low Fertility Rate

1971 was the last time in Canada where the fertility rate matched the replacement level. The fertility rate tells us how many hypothetical children a female between the age of 15 and 49 will have. The replacement level tells us where this rate needs to be in order to replace our aging population. In essence if the fertility rate remains below the replacement level for a long period of time as it has in Canada, the population will naturally begin to shrink without immigration. It is thanks to our high immigration levels that Canada’s population is actually growing rather than shrinking.

Although our population may be growing, it is still not growing fast enough to replace all the retiring baby boomers in the job market. This is not only putting extra pressure on corporate pension plans and the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) but also causing our unemployment rates to drop to record lows as our overall economy is thriving.

Low Unemployment Rate

Last month the Canadian economy added 27,700 more jobs causing the unemployment rate in Canada to fall to a record low 5.4%. This is following an April where the economy added a record 106,500 jobs. Although the job numbers of May when broken down aren’t as great as they are on the surface, for the month of April, the numbers were amazing from every angle and breakdown. Such low unemployment is amazing right? Yes in a sense it means wages will start going up and the general public will benefit in the short-term.

However, an unemployment rate that is too low also means businesses will struggle to find good talent to fill there roles and that eventually the businesses will not be able to perform at full capacity because of the lack of full employment. Businesses will instead need to scale down if they are not able to find the right people for these jobs. In a sense the Canadian economy will be performing so well it will burn out. Immigrants are the reason our GDP and economy are growing while allowing Canada to maintain a healthy unemployment rate. Without immigration, less people in Canada would be employed so less people would be spending there hard earned dollars in our local economy and thus it would be unlikely that Canada’s economy would be able to maintain it’s growth rate without coming to a crashing halt.

The US Unemployment Rate

Many people are quick to point out that the US unemployment rate is much lower than Canada’s so if they burnout problem is real then we must be still far away from that burnout level. There is 1 very important thing to note here, the US and Canada calculate there unemployment rates very differently. In both Canada and US the very basic definition of being unemployed is the same.

To be considered “Unemployed” a survey respondent must not have done any work for pay during a particular week of the survey month, must be available for work, and – most crucially – must have done something to find a job during the last four weeks. – The Globe and Mail

However where the key difference comes into play is what qualifies as doing something to search for a job. In the US only active searching qualifies you to meet this criteria whereas in Canada both active and passive (simply browsing through job listings) searching qualifies you for this. For more details on the differences you can read this Globe and Mail article.

Cognitive Diversity

Canadian are no stranger to diversity in the traditional sense. As a country we embrace different types of people, diversity and multiculturalism is a part of Canada. However, cognitive diversity is something many people do not understand. While someone that is born or raised in Canada with a diverse background adds significant value to the workplace, we all went to the same elementary and high schools and were taught to think the same way. That is not to say differences in age, gender and ethnicity do not provide cognitive diversity. However, people arriving to Canada from various countries can bring very different ways of thinking and doing things. This creates cognitive diversity in the workplace and allows Canadian companies to better succeed.

A high degree of cognitive diversity could generate accelerated learning and performance in the face of new, uncertain, and complex situations, as in the case of the execution problem we set for our executives. – Harvard Business Review

Sources: Bloomberg; CTV News; CBC; CIC News; Bank of Canada; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; Statistics Canada; Miles Corak; Forbes; Forbes; Emergenetics; The Star; HBR; Wikipedia Commons;

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One of the attackers involved in today’s attack had posted a long anti-immigration and anti-muslim manifesto online. Although the manifesto is unsigned, it is still likely that of the primary attacker. None of these innocent people did anything to these attackers but only exist and believe in a different religion from them. These people were just simply innocent people praying. Men, women and children, nobody was spared. The attackers were inspired by the constant anti-immigration and anti-muslim rhetoric spreading around the world. For some reason, terror attacks committed by Muslims receive 357% more media attention. This causes some people out there to discriminate against others that are or perceived to be Muslim.

“The disparity in media coverage is particularly out of sync with the reality given that white and rightwing terrorists carried out nearly twice as many terrorist attacks as Muslim extremists between 2008 and 2016.” – The Guardian 

This type of rhetoric and Islamaphobia has gotten a lot worse since 2016 to the extent that many politicians are now openly speaking this same rhetoric in public settings and during rallies. When attacks like this are carried out they act as if it is not an act of terror but something we should have been seen coming. This is revolting because those people who are meant to lead our countries are essentially encouraging acts of violence. One Australian senator actually blamed immigration for this attack in a public statement.

“Muslims, may have been the victims today; usually they are the perpetrators.” “The real cause of bloodshed on New Zealand streets today is the immigration program which allowed Muslim fanatics to migrate to New Zealand in the first place.” – Fraser Anning

Furthermore, religious extremists, no matter what religion they claim is theirs are always disconnected from the religion. These extremists are just that, extremists. The only religion and cause they are a part of is terrorism. All religions are supposed to be about peace, not murdering innocent humans that have different beliefs. What makes this worse is when people decide to take things a step further and commit horrendous acts like the one committed yesterday. How do you think terror groups will respond to this? They will use this as an excuse to inspire fear and recruit more people to their cause. They will use this as a reason to carry out even more attacks in the future. It is a never-ending circle where one act of violence will lead to another one. Let’s break the cycle! While we can’t stop people from committing these horrendous acts we can control our own behaviour. Don’t treat someone differently just because of who they are or where they come from. Treat others as you would want to be treated. Call out the politicians and definitely vote against those that encourage this type of hate. The colour of someone’s skin, their religion, sexual orientation or gender are just a small part of who that person is. Why do so many people forget something so important? We are all, in the end, one race, we are humans. So for the future of mankind, treat others with kindness and remember that violence only inspires more violence.

Sources: CNN Live; The Guardian

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The Pressure and Shuffle

This is the part of the controversy where things become less clear and aren’t just simple facts. It has become a game of he said, she said and there are many conflicting points between what Jody Wilson-Raybould has said versus what Justin Trudeau and his office have said. There is however also some common ground between both sides. Both sides agree that there were discussions between the PMO and Jody-Wilson-Raybould about offering SNC-Lavalin a Deferred Prosecution Agreement (DPA). They also agree that there were talks about obtaining the opinion of a former Supreme Court Justice although both sides seem to disagree on who’s idea this was. The hardest part to decide is at what point do these discussions become inappropriate pressure and if this line was crossed did the Prime Minister know it was being crossed.

“I do not believe it is inappropriate to have conversations about job losses, about SNC in the early stages where ministers can raise these issues with the attorney general. What is inappropriate is the long, sustained discussions about the job losses after it is very clear that I had made my decision and was not going to pursue a DPA.” – Jody Wilson-Raybould

Of course, both sides disagree whether it was just simple discussions or if it was inappropriate pressure. In my opinion, there are three really key points where the stories differ beyond the simple fact of if there was undue pressure or not.

A Final Decision

• Gerald Butts and Justin Trudeau say that they were unaware that Jody Wilson-Raybould had made a final decision and this is why they continued discussions with her.
• Jody Wilson-Raybould says that she had made it very clear her decision had been made and was final. She says she also warned them by continuing to talk to her about it, it could be considered political interference.

Former Supreme Court Justice Consultation

• Gerald Butts and Justin Trudeau insist that most of their discussions have been about obtaining an outside opinion from a former Supreme Court Justice to help Jody Wilson-Raybould make her decision. This implies if there has been any pressure it hasn’t been to offer a DPA to SNC-Lavalin but instead to seek out advice on whether it would be appropriate to do so. They say they did make the case for a DPA but once Jody Wilson-Raybould said she felt it would not be appropriate for her to intervene this is what they have been recommending. Something Gerald Butts said in his testimony was her idea in the first place. They also say that they have been focussed on protecting jobs and it is in the best public interest to offer the company a deal.
• Jody Wilson-Raybould, on the other hand, contends that the pressure has been to offer a DPA to SNC-Lavalin and a solution must be found in any way possible. She says consulting a former Supreme Court Justice was the idea of Gerald Butts and they have only been pushing this on her because they want to change her mind about offering SNC-Lavalin a DPA. She also says that most of their pressure has still been that the company should be offered a deal not only because it is in the best interest of the country but also because of political reasons.

The Cabinet Shuffle

• Gerald Butts and Justin Trudeau say that the only reason Jody Wilson-Raybould was moved out of her position was that Minister Brison stepped down from his position as President of the Treasury Board. This required a cabinet shuffle to take place and the Prime Minister wanted to move some key ministers including Jody Wilson-Raybould. He wanted her to be the next Minister of Indigenous Affairs as this was a key part of his agenda and he felt she would handle it well. She refused this position and was thus moved to Veteran Affairs instead as Gerald Butts said this could create bad precedent if she was left in her current position so she was moved to a different position.
• Jody Wilson-Raybould says she believes she was shuffled out of her position as Minister of Justice and Attorney General because she did not do what the Prime Minister wanted in regards to SNC-Lavalin. She says she was told that one way or another the Prime Minister would get what he wanted and this is why she believes her being shuffled was meant to punish her for not complying. Many agree with her turning down the position of Indigenous Affairs and some say it could even be considered offensive offering it to her. Others say that as an Indigenous person herself, she would have done a great job running this department.

This short video highlights four key points where the stories differ by showcasing different parts of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Gerald Butts testimonies. This video touches on the three points I mentioned while providing more detail and context to these points. The video also brings up some additional relevant points.

An Underlying Issue

In Canada, the Attorney General and the Minister of Justice are the same person. This is nothing new and it is how it has always been done in Canada but the same is not true in many countries. The reason that this is an issue is because this can create some conflict between the two roles. The Minister of Justice is a member of the cabinet and is free to discuss all sorts of matters including political ones, in a sense, this role is a political one. However, the same cannot be said for the Attorney General who serves as the chief law officer in Canada. This role is meant to be independent and non-partisan.  Thus, one could essentially say that Justin Trudeau is free to have all conversations and put all sorts of pressure on the Minister of Justice but not the Attorney General. The only problem is they are exactly the same person. Whether you believe Justin Trudeau’s side of the story or Jody Wilson-Raybould’s, most seem to agree on this point, even Jody herself.

“The two hats that the minister of justice and the attorney general wears here in our country are completely different, and I think there would be merit to talking about having those as two separate individuals” – Jody Wilson-Raybould

Although this issue has existed for many years, this recent scandal has brought it to light. Imagine being in this role yourself, you have to think about the politics, getting re-elected and other political issues as the Minister of Justice but as the Attorney General you have to remain completely non-partisan on these same issues. What if SNC-Lavalin employed thousands of people in the riding of the Minister of Justice. As the Minister of Justice, a member of Parliament (MP) and a cabinet member you want to make sure you serve your local riding well, consider constituent concerns and are re-elected. On the other side as Attorney General, you cannot give anyone special treatment just because of how it looks politically. The United States and the United Kingdom both have similar legal systems as ours but these two important roles are separated in the countries. If anything this scandal could finally split these two roles. Whether we follow the system of the United Kingdom where both roles are MPs but only the Minister of Justice sits in the cabinet, the United States where it is someone simply appointed by the President outside of Congress or create our own method this is something worth considering.

Current Situation

The current situation has been exacerbated by the way Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party originally responded when the accusations arose. When Justin Trudeau first spoke out, his answer was very scripted and precise and realistically barely answered the question at hand. As time has gone on, the answer itself has changed too. As came in more detail so did more confusion and contradictions. Furthermore, when Jody Wilson-Raybould has resigned from the cabinet and after her testimony, he went into attack mode. A much better approach would have been an apologetic and sympathetic approach which he has now started to drift towards. This is typically how he responds to situations so it was a little surprising to see the other side of him. Something more along the lines of I am sincerely sorry that Jody Wilson-Raybould felt she was being pressured, this was never my intent and then laying out his side of the story would have been much better than basically saying she was wrong.

“And so now, to come out and adopt this very conciliatory tone — acknowledging mistakes were made, we should have handled this better — it’s hard not to see that as damage control, as opposed to an authentic acknowledgement.” – Shannon Proudfoot

The situation continues to rapidly evolve so it’s hard to say where we will sit in a few days but hopefully we will have some more concrete answers soon. The bad news keeps piling up for Justin Trudeau as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said they are concerned about these allegations of Trudeau potentially interfering the SNC-Lavalin case. The international organization, of which Canada is a member, is now keeping a close watch on the situation as it develops. Canada, all OECD countries and an additional eight countries signed a legally binding Anti-Bribery Convention in 1999. Although both Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott have resigned from the cabinet because of this scandal, both still remain in the Liberal caucus. In fact, Jody has even said she will be running as a Liberal in the upcoming election. Probably some of the only good news for Trudeau right now.

I am not going to tell you whether I think what Trudeau, the PMO, the PCO, Jody Wilson-Raybould or others did was right or wrong. That is your decision to make and hopefully, all the facts presented above and in part 1 will help you decide that. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer so nothing in this article constitutes legal advice. 

Sources (Part 2): CPAC; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; BIV; CTV News; CTV News; CTV News; CNN; National Post; Global News; Global News; Global News; Huffington Post; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; YouTube;

Sources (Part 1): CPAC; CTV News; Global News; Financial Post; Financial Post; National Post; National Post; The Tyee; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Global and Mail; City News; The Star; Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance;

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SNC-Lavalin Charges

To even begin to understand this entire situation, we need to understand how it all began. In 2015, the RCMP brought fraud and corruption charges against SNC-Lavalin for acts committed by the company in Libya. It is important to note that these charges being brought in front of the courts have nothing to do with the company’s conduct in Canada and technically speaking the charges are not for breaking any laws within Canada. However, Canadian law has the ability to hold Canadian companies liable for certain laws even if they are broken in a different country. SNC-Lavalin allegedly used bribery to get government projects in Libya between 2001 and 2011.

“There is one count of corruption related to at least $47.7-million in alleged bribes to Libyan public or other officials. A second count is for fraud of about $130-million related to construction projects in Libya, including the Great Man Made River Project.” – The Globe and Mail

This is actually a very heated debate topic in the business world. Should Canadian companies be bound by Canadian laws, especially on laws about corruption in countries like Libya? For context, Libya currently ranks 170th of 175 countries on the Global Corruption Perceptions Index whereas Canada ranks 9th. So basically Libya is perceived to be the 170th worst country in the world for corruption. The old saying “when in Rome do as the Romans” comes to mind here. Now imagine attempting to conduct business in a country like this where every company except your company is bribing government officials in an effort to land the project. The chances your company secures the project are basically 0 because government officials care more about their own pockets than anything else. SNC-Lavalin attempted to level the playing field by playing by the same rules as the local companies in an attempt to secure these projects. So when operating in Libya should Canadian companies stick with Canadian norms and ethics or follow the local norms and ethics.

Illegal and Legal Contributions

There were separate charges regarding illegal federal political contributions. Between 2004 and 2011, SNC-Lavalin executives encouraged employees and their spouses to make political contributions to the Liberal or Conservative parties and then were reimbursed by the company. In total the party illegally donated nearly $118,000 (approximately 7% went to the Conservatives and 93% to the Liberals). The federal elections commission reached a deal with the company in which the company was not charged as all the executives responsible were no longer a part of the company and the company was fully co-operating. In January, Normand Morin, the only executive charged by the election watchdog pleaded guilty to 2 of 5 charges while the remaining 3 charges were dropped, bringing a close to this saga. These charges themselves are not relevant to the situation at hand and both these cases have no connection whatsoever beyond the fact that SNC-Lavalin has a very murky past. Many media outlets continue to draw a connection between the fact that the Liberals are trying to help the company because of the illegal contributions they have received, even though all 3 major political parties in Canada had very different leaders at the time. The parties have also repaid all the contributions made illegally stating they had no knowledge of the illegal activities. As the case did not go to trial we will never know who precisely received the money or any further details.

During that same time period, SNC-Lavalin and its subsidiaries donated over $200,000 legally. Approximately 55% of this money went to the Liberals while 25% of this money went to the Conservatives. Since then, the company seems to have switched its strategy. Between 2011 and 2015 the company donated nearly $150,000 with 56% going to the Conservatives and 34% to the Liberals. The small remainder of the money going to various provincial parties or candidates directly. Both parties have received vast amounts of funds from SNC and the amounts would be even higher if you count the personal donations made by the Lamarre family (the family that ran SNC for many years).

Economic Impact on Canada

SNC-Lavalin was founded in 1911 in Montreal. Since that day, the company has grown significantly and now employs over 50,000 employees globally. With C$9.3 billion in revenue in 2017, the company is one of the largest engineering firms in the world and apart of the largest 100 companies in Canada. Through numerous acquisitions and mergers, the company has expanded quickly globally but this has also led to the fact that Canada no longer has the most employees for the company. Following 2 acquisitions in the UK in 2014 and 2017, the company now employs over 10,000 employees in the UK, a little more than here in Canada.  While at one time SNC-Lavalin employed over 20,000 people in Canada, today the company only employs 8,500 people in our country, still representing 16% of the company’s global employees. Most of these 8,500 jobs are high paying jobs so the impact on our economy would definitely be felt.

“SNC-Lavalin is one of only a dozen large-scale infrastructure companies worldwide and the only one in Canada capable of taking a project from start to finish, according to analysts.” – The Globe and Mail

If found guilty and charged with these crimes, SNC-Lavalin would no longer be able to bid for any government contracts whether they be federal or municipal in Canada. Thus, the company has threatened to leave the country altogether and move its head office to London. A loss of 8,500 high paying jobs would have an impact on our economy but it goes beyond just that. SNC-Lavalin is responsible for many major projects that we all know very well. Vancouver’s SkyTrain system, including the design, construction and current operation of the Canada Line was and is SNC-Lavalin. The massive Manic-5 hydroelectric dam in Quebec, once again SNC-Lavalin. The company is also responsible for Darlington Ontario nuclear-generating station and is a part owner (16.76%) of Highway 407. In Alberta, SNC-Lavalin is responsible for the Husky Lloydminster Refinery. These are just a few examples of the projects that SNC-Lavalin has either been a large part of or has been slowly responsible for.

“The company is working on seven of the 10 biggest construction projects underway in Canada, according to data from infrastructure trade publication ReNew Canada. Total value of the projects: $66.8-billion.” – The Globe and Mail

The company would also have difficulty bidding for contracts in other countries if it had a criminal record in Canada so even if the head office was not moved to London, many jobs could be lost and the company could go bankrupt. Many say that SNC-Lavalin has already been slowly moving these high-skilled and executive decision making jobs so fighting for these jobs is futile, especially since many of these jobs could be picked up by competitors. However, SNC-Lavalin is a huge part of our economy beyond just jobs in Quebec. A loss of the company in any way would have a strong hit on our economy considering how integrated the company has become in many of our everyday lives without us even realizing it.

Subscribe now to be sure you’re notified when I publish the second part that focuses on the current scandal rather than the background information or be sure to check back next Wednesday! You can read part 2 here now. Don’t forget to share your opinions below in the comments!

Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer so nothing in this article constitutes legal advice. 

Sources: CPAC; CTV News; Global News; Financial Post; Financial Post; National Post; National Post; The Tyee; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Global and Mail; City News; The Star; Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance;

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Transition Fuel

Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is marketed as a transition fuel that could drive countries like India and China to displace coal and actually reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. With coal consumption accounting for approximately half of the world’s CO₂ emissions and just these two countries alone accounting for over 60% of global coal consumption the impact could be vast. Not including the drilling and extracting, natural gas produces 50% to 60% fewer emissions than coal. However, the drilling and extracting of natural gas can result in leakage of methane, a gas much worse than CO₂ for climate change. In order to deliver true benefits compared to coal, the leakage of methane must be kept below 3.2%. If the LNG Canada project is able to succeed in this, the benefits for carbon emissions are obvious.

Coal and the BC Economy

While being the first province in Canada to introduce a carbon tax and the BC government always being a large voice in arguing climate change is an important issue, BC exported more coal in 2017 than all of Mexico produced in the same year. In fact, Vancouver is the largest exporter of coal in all of North America, the majority of which is produced in BC. Using an emissions formula by Sierra Club, National Post estimates that 99.8 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions will be produced by coal exported from BC in 2017. However, coal is very important to the BC economy as it stands today. Coal is the province’s number one export commodity and generates billions for the economy and thousands of jobs.

The Net Benefit

If LNG truly is the transition fuel from coal to a greener future for Asia then BC has no choice but to be heavily involved. The LNG industry in BC would have to be able to replace the jobs and economic impact the coal industry currently has in BC. Especially since global demand for coal continues to decline every year while LNG demand rises. In 2013 it was estimated that the coal mining industry was directly responsible for 26,000 jobs. After construction on the LNG Canada project is completed, it is expected to generate over 10,000 jobs for just BC. The LNG Canada project at $40 billion is the largest in BC’s history. The economic impact will be significant and will go a long way to start supplanting the coal industry.

Although the coal that is mined in BC or exported from BC does not have a large impact on BC’s CO₂ emissions, it does have a large impact on global emissions. Shell, a major player in the LNG Canada project has set multiple goals for methane leakage. By 2025, the company is aiming to have the amount of methane emitted compared to the total volume of natural gas produced to be less than 0.2% and by 2050 less than 0.1%. If Shell is able to meet these numbers in the LNG Canada project, LNG can truly serve as a transition fuel. Thus, although this project may raise BC’s share of carbon emissions, it will actually help reduce global carbon emissions. The net economic impact for BC and net carbon emission impact globally will both be significantly positive.

LNG Pipeline

There has been a lot of national controversy surrounding the pipeline being built that will carry LNG to the Pacific Coast. There are 2 major reasons why this pipeline is very important.

1. Although it is possible to move natural gas by truck or rail, these methods have a significantly higher cost. Unless you are moving the gas only for a short distance, pipelines are the most cost-effective way to move oil and gas.
2. As is the case with oil and gas moving from Alberta, pipelines remain the safest method of transportation for moving natural gas. In addition to the fact it is more convenient, this is the same reason why natural gas is delivered to our homes by pipeline and not delivered by truck.

Of course, nobody wants a pipeline going near their homes but when you think about the largest picture, you will realize it is the best option. Although the damage caused by the recent train derailment in Trail, BC was minimal, the same cannot be said for the subsequent derailment in St. Lazare, Manitoba where you can still smell oil in the air.

Sources: The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; LNG Canada; Forbes; National Post; USCUSA; Vancouver Sun; BOE Report; CBC; Global News; BIV; Reuters; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; JWN Energy; CBC; Research Gate;

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Consumer Importance

Other than 5G hotspots like the ones AT & T and Verizon have launched, the first impact of the 5G revolution will be seen in smartphones. Last year I conducted research in the UK about what consumers were expecting from 5G. Only 40% of the respondents answered saying they would be willing to pay more for 5G services. 50% of them would be willing to pay an extra 15% for 5G services and the remaining 50% would be willing to pay an extra 30%. The respondents that were willing to pay 15% extra were full-time students and the respondents that were willing to pay 30% were working full-time.

Part of the research focussed on what features of their smartphone were most important to them. Messaging apps, internet browsing, and the camera were the top three. Although faster speeds may help you download that video your friend just sent you in a shorter period of time, it is not a top priority. Because of diminishing returns, as speeds continue to rise the increased benefit is minimal. Whether that video downloads in 5 minutes or 30 seconds makes a big difference but whether it downloads 30 seconds or 5 seconds does not make as much of a difference. Thus when focussing on a pure smartphone application for 5G it makes sense why not many consumers were willing to pay more. However, when benefits of 5G beyond just faster video downloads are understood by people, that willingness to pay seems to increase.

In August of 2017, Gartner conducted a similar study in an attempt to determine if end-users were willing to pay more for 5G mobile capabilities or not. This study, however, was primarily focused on end-user organizations rather than regular consumers or all end-users. This study found that not only did 92% of these organizations expect to pay more for 5G but just over 75% of these organizations would be willing to pay more for 5G. 31% of these respondents were willing to pay up to 10% more for 5G than 4G, 22% were willing to pay between 10 and 20% more, 14% of them between 20 and 30% more and 8% were willing to pay more than 30% over current 4G prices for 5G mobile capabilities.

Internet of Things (IoT)

It is said by many experts that just like how 4G pushed the rapid increase of smartphones and the on-demand economy, 5G will do the same for IoT. When thinking of IoT, the first thought that comes to mind for many is smart homes. However, IoT is more than just smart homes but it is about smart cities and much more. It is a world where everything is connected to the internet and thus is able to communicate to one another. Your car, your phone, your thermostat, your house lights, the street lights, your office building, the train signal and much more. According to Bain & Company, by 2022 IoT spending will reach up to $1.2 trillion (USD). IoT paired with 5G will bring great benefits to corporations. A sensor in every freezer at the Amazon Fresh warehouse sending a notification to the employee at 3:00 am because ten of those freezers just malfunctioned. Luckily the cameras on the inside of the freezers show these freezers are actually empty. The employee places an order for new freezers in order to handle the new incoming product and goes back to sleep. Corporations are not the only ones that should be excited about the benefits of 5g and IoT but so should consumers.

Imagine a world where your alarm rings at 6:45 am instead of 7:30 am because there is an accident causing a 45-minute delay on your route to work. You look outside and see it is snowing and are glad to see your closet has your warm clothes out front. You get ready for work and arrive in your kitchen with your robot handing you breakfast as well as a snack for the longer than usual car ride. As you step out your front door, your car pulls up and the door closest to you opens. As the car drives away, your home alarm arms itself, turns down the heat, turns off all the lights and sends you a notification. The car screen pulls up the latest news related to your job for you to read while it drives you to work. As a consultant, it is very important for you to stay up to date on the daily happenings of the world. Your boss texts you and says he needs you to get to the client site as soon as possible rather than the office. The car automatically detects the new address that your boss has added to your calendar and asks you if you would like to re-route. At the end of the day, as you get in your car, your car talks to your house and lets it know you are 30 minutes away. That is how long the house needs to make you dinner as well as warm up the house to your preferred temperature. Since work finished late today, you missed the start of your favourite show. Your DVR at home begins to stream it in 4k UHD to the large screen in your car.

Huawei

This talk about 5G has been further exacerbated by the recent arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huawei. Although the arrest is unrelated to the issues causing global bans on Huawei 5G equipment, it is still putting more spotlight on the issue. The US is lobbying other countries to ban Huawei equipment because of its close connection to the Chinese government. Three of five “Five Eyes” nations have already banned Huawei from supplying 5G equipment to carriers in their respective countries. Leaving just Canada and the UK as holdouts. Germany’s Deutsche Telekom, which is the largest European telecommunications company has said it is reviewing its relationship with Huawei. In addition, carriers in Japan, France, South Korea, and the UK have independently said they would not be continuing relations with the company.

In Canada, Telus and Bell rely heavily on Huawei for their telecom equipment. Both companies have been conducting their 5G trials with Huawei equipment. It is reported that it would cost the two companies more than $1 billion to rip out and replace all Huawei equipment. Rogers, on the other hand, has partnered with Ericsson so would actually be impacted positively if Canada were to ban Huawei for 5G. Not only would it’s main competitors have to spend over $1 billion changing their equipment but also be delayed in their rollout of 5G which is otherwise expected to begin in 2020.

It’s Coming

Whether you like it or not, the 5G revolution is upon us. Just as when 4G launched, it will take some time before it is fully rolled out and before utilized. In fact, some IoT devices still use a 2G connection even today. Although it will take time, we should still expect an increase in prices. Just like when the transition from 3G to 4G began, special dedicated higher price plans should be expected.

Sources: Primary Research; CIC; The Globe and Mail; Mobilesyrup; Forbes; Forbes; Ericsson; Network World; Accenture; 5GCC; Newswire; Android Central; McKinsey; Bain & Company; Gartner;

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The Decision

When I decided to pursue my MBA in 2016, four schools caught my eye at the QS MBA Fair: Hult, Queen’s, York and UBC. There were other schools that seemed interesting but these four truly jumped out at me for a variety of reasons. In order to make sure I made the right decision, I visited each school, sat in on a class and tried to immerse myself in the full MBA experience. Hult was the last school I visited and as I was getting in my Uber to leave the school I knew where I wanted to go. The culture, the people, the learning style, the environment and well just about everything about the school just felt right.

Hult International Business School was founded in 2003 as a school focused on delivering a more hands-on practical business education while exposing you to a variety of world cultures. The school allows students to study in any of its 4 home campuses (Boston, San Francisco, London or Dubai) for the first 8 months of the course. For the remaining 4 months, students may rotate to another home campus or a rotation campus (New York or Shanghai), students may even split their 4 months equally among 2 different campuses.

London

My MBA journey began in London. In London, our MBA cohort had 75 students originating from 34 different countries and 34 different industries. With so many people arriving in a new place for a similar purpose, we quickly became a tightly knit, very large, family. At the end of our very first class, we stood right outside the class and sang Happy Birthday to 2 people we had all just met the day before. This was the same family type environment I had felt when I visited Hult the first time and part of what drew me to the school. The differences and diversity of our cohort was a great advantage. What was one person’s weakness was another person’s strength, we were able to help each other overcome these weaknesses and grow. A key part of Hult’s DNA is the growth mindset and this mindset quickly became embodied in many of our cohort. No task was impossible if you were stuck all you needed to was ask for help and learn how to tackle the task.

Adventure

As a tightly knit group, we were constantly planning group activities and trips. This meant ensuring a strong work-life balance; working hard Monday to Thursday so we could go on a trip Friday after class. Whether it was a day trip to Oslo or a weekend trip to Dublin, we always had a great time. With flights as cheap as £12 (~$20), it was hard to pass up on these opportunities.

The group adventures were not limited to trips or local group activities. For many years I have wanted to go skydiving but always had difficulty finding people in Vancouver to go with me. It turns out this was also the case for others in our class and just like that we had booked a bus to take us to the North London Skydiving Centre.

Although skydiving was something I had always wanted to do, my new friends found other ways to push me outside my comfort zone. I joined the Theatre club as an executive to help organize Hult’s first ever play but was quickly convinced by the director to just audition for the play for fun. Next thing I know she is posting the casting list and I am a part of the cast. Although public speaking is something I enjoy, putting on a costume, makeup and performing in front of an audience was just different. After all was said and done, I was very glad my friend had tricked me into being a part of the play. Performing in front of a sold-out crowd provided an even bigger thrill than skydiving did.

Consulting/Field (Hands-on) Projects

As part of our MBA program, we did multiple field projects where we worked with an external company to help solve a problem. We were able to use what we were learning and directly apply it to hands-on projects while receiving feedback not only from our professors but also the companies. In many cases, these projects or parts of them were implemented by the company.

Our largest project was called the Hult Business Challenge about the future of mobility. In November, Daimler flew in one of their executives and an employee (a Hult Alumni) to give us a challenge that we would be working on for nearly 6 months. While working on the project for Daimler I realized, the idea of working with a variety of clients and projects excites me – always having a new challenge in front of me keeps me driven. Not only was I able to develop and in some cases execute innovative strategies, but I also learned that consulting was the future career for me.

Nebula – The Hult Prize

The Hult Prize is a global competition that takes place every year across over 100 countries. At the end of the competition for each year, “The President’s Challenge” is announced for the following year. The challenge issued by President Bill Clinton for the 2018 year was “harnessing the power of energy.” From here there are competitions a thousands of universities around the world and the winner of this round advances to the regional finals. From this challenge emerged my start-up Nebula.

Nebula, is a company focused on solving the world’s water shortage problem by converting fog into clean water using fog nets and fog catchers. We placed in 2nd of 24 teams at our campus competition and were able to apply for a wildcard entry into the regional finals. From over 100,000 wildcard applicants our team was lucky enough to be selected for the regional finals taking place in Tunis, Tunisia. We immediately booked flights to Agadir, Morocco, the closest known installation of a working fog catcher. It was time to conduct field research to take what was just a project and turn it into a true company. After conducting all our research, preparing our presentation and with only two days until our trip to Tunis, we needed a test audience. Within hours of us asking, we had 18 of our classmates and some staff ready to listen and give us feedback. In the end thanks to all the hard work and research, our team was able to finish in the top 1% worldwide for the 2018 Hult Prize.

Dubai

If someone had told me two years ago that I would be living in Dubai for the hottest time of the year and during Ramadan, I would not have believed them. Ramadan is the time of year where many Muslims around the world do not eat or drink while the sun is up. With such a high population of Muslims in the Middle East, many countries have laws where eating and drinking in public is forbidden. This can be very difficult when walking outside in the blazing sun at a temperature of 45°C. However, I am glad that this is the time I ended up being in Dubai because otherwise, I would have missed out on so much of the culture of the city. Although I only fasted for the one day I was attending an Iftar (the official breaking of the fast), I still learned a lot from the locals about the traditions and norms of the region.

Only a small group of five London MBAs had chosen to rotate to Dubai for the first elective module. Beyond experiencing the culture of a completely different city, the experience within the school itself remained largely the same. The same hands-on education, different but similar people and a quality learning experience. Jebel Jais in Ras Al Khaimah of the UAE, just two hours away from Dubai is home to the world’s longest zip line. While already in Dubai there was no way we could pass up on this opportunity. At a height of 1,680 meters above sea level and traveling a distance of 2.5km at speeds up to 150 km/h, it was an amazing experience. While some flew faster than others, and some got stuck on the second part of the zip line, it was another amazing memory during this journey.

Boston

To no surprise, the rotation to Boston had a similar feeling. A different city but the overall Hult experience remained consistent. There were some differences, especially with Boston being the campus where Hult began. I picked Boston because it was the only campus offering a coaching certification course. As someone pursuing consulting, management coaching seemed like a strong tool to have. These coaching classes built on our leadership training throughout our time at Hult. I practiced on the new classmates I had met, longtime friends in Vancouver over Skype and basically anyone I knew that could use some guidance. In the end, our professor brought in managers from the industry for us to coach. This was our final assessment that would determine if we were certified or not.

My favourite part of my time in Boston was my trip to Maine. One of my classmates from London and a close friend of mine has lived in Maine his whole life, just a short bus ride away from Boston. He was able to finish his electives and come home early. He had gone whitewater rafting a few times with his friends and family and asked me if I would be interested in coming to Maine and doing the same. I dove straight in and started at level 4 rapids (level 5 being the highest). Although we took some intentional jumps out of the raft to take some swims, I luckily never fell out of the boat in a rapid.

The End

Over the last year, I have grown a lot as a person and learned even more. However, if I had to pick something about this experience that I will never forget it has to be the people and cultural exposure. In just a short time I made such a strong connection with some of the people that we still talk on a regular basis nearly four months later. Through our diverse class and immersion in different cities, I learned so much about different cultures around the world. In this digitally connected world, it has become that much more important to not only understand global cultures and their differences but also to know the traditions and norms of these cultures. Through my experience at Hult, I have learned a lot but I still have a lot to learn.

It’s not to say Hult is without any faults, as a young business school, there are bound to be growing pains. The school has room for improvement but as someone that attended the University of Toronto and the University of British Columbia in my undergrad, I can tell you even these major schools have room for improvement. The big difference is that as a young school Hult is actively trying to listen to faculty, students and alumni on how it can improve and as a small school, it is very agile and easily able to make these improvements. It was definitely a journey like no other. A big thank you to my friends and family that supported me throughout this journey especially my parents. Now on to the next chapter. 

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At the end of the day on December 3rd Western Canadian Select (WCS) futures, the reference price for heavy crude from the oil sands was trading at $27.95/barrel. WTI Crude (North American Crude benchmark), on the other hand, was trading at $52.95. WCS was trading at a relative discount of $25. This too after WCS was up by over 65% ($11.02) on the day because of Alberta Premier Notleys announcement. The spread/differential has continually grown to historic highs as global oil prices have increased over the past year but the price of WCS has rapidly declined from its high of $58.37 since May. In fact, in October WCS was trading at a $52/barrel discount compared to WTI.

At historic lows of $13.27 in mid-November, something needed to be done. For the first time since 1980, the province of Alberta will limit the production of oil. This cut of about 325,000 barrels a day along with a plan to acquire more rail capacity and Enbridge line 3 expected to open by the end of next year, WCS prices finally have some relief. Although WCS has historically always traded at a discount, why is the discount at such a high level now?

Reliance on the U.S.

For anyone that followed the NAFTA saga since President Trump was elected knows how reliant the Canadian economy is on the United States. For many years Canada has been working on diversifying our global trade and trade agreements like CETA and CPTPP will help with that a lot overall. However, without building more pipelines to the coasts, the Canadian Oil industry will remain strongly reliant on the U.S. Canada is the fourth largest producer and exporter of oil but 99% of our oil exports go to the U.S. This means that we are very reliant on the U.S. to buy our oil. Two of Canadian oil’s key U.S. customers have been offline and underground maintenance for some weeks. With both BP Plc’s Whiting refinery in Indiana and Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s Detroit refinery offline, a large amount of inventory has built up with nowhere else to be shipped.

Shipping Constraints

Roughly 35 million barrels of oil (double the normal amount) were sitting in storage and before these cuts, an additional 190,000 barrels were being added every day to storage because they were unable to be shipped out. Basic economics teaches that an excess of supply means prices will have to drop to compensate. Even if these lower prices increase demand, the oil still has no way of being shipped. Most pipelines are running near maximum and while rail capacity is increasing fast, it cannot keep up.

Need for Pipelines

Many activists say that if the Trans Mountain pipeline and other pipelines are allowed to be built, it will increase emissions because more oil will be produced from the oil sands. There is no denying that the emissions from the Canadian Oil Sands contribute significantly to Canadian emissions. There is also no denying that moving oil that pipeline spills can damage the environment around them. However, looking at the facts the lack of pipelines will not reduce the amount of oil being produced but it will just be transported in different ways, primarily by rail. In 2017, the oil industry shipped approximately 140,000 barrels by rail per day. By the end of this year, the amount of oil being shipped by rail could hit 300,000 barrels per day.

Greg Stringham an energy consultant said,

With further delays in pipelines, that’s increased the amount of oil that’s moving by rail but also increased the interest in that as well as companies look to that option.

Safest Method of Transportation

Experts say not only are pipelines the safest method for moving crude but also the most efficient and least expensive way to ship oil. In 2015 the Fraser Institute conducted a study analyzing the methods of transporting oil between 2003 and 2013. Although both rail and pipelines are considered safe methods of transportation, pipelines are by far the safer method. The study highlights that an incident is 4.5 times more likely when shipping by rail. Not only that but 99% of pipeline incidents did not damage the environment. If the oil is going to be produced and shipped regardless, should we not be using the safest method of transportation while reducing our reliance on the U.S. by building more pipelines?

Sources: Oil Price; CBC; Financial Post; Financial Post; Financial Post; BNN Bloomberg; Keep Canada Working; CTV News; CBC; Natural Resources Canada; Fraser Institute;

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A city of 4 million people – is just months away from running out of fresh water. In just under 130 days, Cape Town water reservoirs and other water sources will hit a critical low of 13.5%. At this point, the city will be forced to implement a strict water-rationing system. Citizens of Cape Town may have to stand in line surrounded by armed guards just to have access to about 25 liters of water a day. To put that in perspective, that is less than what an average person with a water-saving shower head will use in four minutes of showering. 

Global Epidemic

Easy access to clean water is something many of us in the Western World take for granted but we should consider ourselves very lucky. Mexico City, Jakarta, Sao Paulo, Beijing, Cairo, Bangalore, Tokyo, and London are eight major cities around the world other than Cape Town heading towards the same path. In fact, by the year 2030, it is estimated that only 60% of the world’s population will have access to clean water. According to the United Nations, a quarter of the world’s population already faces an economic water shortage. Water usage is growing at more than double the rate of the population increase. 

Solutions

Water Recycling/Sewage Treatment

In 2013, Thames Water said that unless action was taken, London, UK would be facing a deficit of 125 million liters per day. The company proposed a solution to the predicted water shortage and launched a consultation on water recycling. The idea of treating sewage water, putting it back in the Thames and then treating it again. Of course, when given the option, very few people would want to drink sewage water. Even if it has been treated multiple times. 

Desalination Plants

In the UAE, just a single desalination plant produces 2.13 billion liters of drinking water a day from the sea. Traditionally, sea and ocean water is not drinkable because of the high salt content. These plants are able to solve this problem. Although the technology has been around for some time, it has been underutilized because of the high cost. With technological advancements, the cost has decreased in the past years but these plants still require a large investment. 

Fog Catchers

Although well-known by many near Lima, Peru and other select cities around the world, the technology is typically, unknown by many. With current technology, a single 55m² fog catcher can produce on average 500 liters of water a day.  Fog catchers have been mainly been used on a small scale typically by NGOs because they were not profitable enough. However, with recent breakthroughs at Virginia Tech, fog catchers may be able to produce upwards of 1500 liters of water a day. This would finally allow the technology to be globally scaled and implemented in many cities around the world with high levels of fog to supplement the existing water sources. My new start-up Nebula is a social enterprise with a mission to scale fog catchers globally and profitably to help this growing global epidemic. We at Nebula want to live in a world where there is no shortage of water. 

Sources: WRI; Euronews; National Geographic; Business Insider; United Nations; BBC; Time; Arabian Business; CNN;

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