Talking to many of my friends I’m realizing many people are still unsure on who to vote for and with the 2019 Federal Election fast approaching, I thought I would write a blog post to give everyone an overview to help simplify the decision. This post will be focused on a recap of the past four years and also provide some information on the platforms/promises the major parties have made. I will be focusing on the top issues that pollsters say concern voters this time around in no particular order. I will try to keep each section as short as possible and in sections where there is too much to say there will be links to read more details if you are interested.

Promises Made

In 2011 a research group started tracking the promises (Polimeter) kept by political parties at the Federal level. It may surprise many as politicians are known are liars by many but both Governments that have been in power since then have done a very good job of keeping their promises.

From 2011 to 2015 the Harper Conservative Government either fully met or partially met 85% of the promises they made during the 2011 election campaign. From 2015 to 2019 the Trudeau Liberal Government either fully met or partially met 92% of the promises they made during the 2015 election campaign. This is an important statistic to know as all parties are out there making tons of promises for the upcoming election.

In the end, however, the researchers found the Trudeau and the last Harper government had the highest rates of follow-through on their campaign promises of any Canadian government over the last 35 years.

Overall, governments in Canada have good records when it comes to keeping promises, Petry said. – National Post

National Post article about the Research Study

Trudeau Polimeter Tracker

Immigration

As I’ve done a blog post recently on Canada’s Immigration Policies I will keep this section very short. The Liberal Government passed a bill very early into their tenure to repeal Bill C-51 of the previous Conservative Government which made it harder to become a Canadian Citizen and also gave the Government the power to take away the citizenship of many Canadians under certain circumstances.  Simply put, without high rates of immigration Canada’s population will decline to decline. Pair that with the fact that the unemployment rate right now is at one of the lowest level it has ever been in Canadian history, we really need skilled immigrants. Under the Liberal Government, our immigration numbers have grown significantly. This year Canada is expected to welcome 300,000 immigrants (nearly 1% of our population) to our country. Approximately 191,600 of these immigrants (~64%) came in through economic immigration (skilled workers).

There have been a lot of myths spread about the number of refugees Canada takes in and the amount of support the Government provides these refugees. According to the United Nations in 2018 Canada resettled more refugees than any other country in the world by bringing in 28,100 of global 92,400 refugees with over two-thirds of these refugees coming through private sponsorship rather than Government sponsorship.

Although not technically related to current immigration, the Government under the Liberals also issued an official apology for the komagata maru incident that happened in 1914. There were many other similar official well overdue apologies issued during this term.

Financial Post: All the reasons why Canada needs immigration — and more of it

Economy

Many Central Banks around the world have started cutting interest rates because of their economies have entered a recession and generally speaking the Canadian economy typically follows route, especially when the EU and US economy are in a downturn. However, month after month people looking for those negative economic numbers out of Canada are shocked and disappointed.

As I mentioned earlier, Canada’s unemployment rate continues to either hit or sit around record lows and shows no signs of letting up. For most of the year the Canadian dollar has been the top performing currency in the G10. Some economists argue that by running budget deficits over the past four years, the Liberal Government has been investing in the Canadian economy and that is why we are riding high while others are not. Other economists argue that by continuing to run deficits it will be harder for Canada to fight back from a recession when it does come. I think the fact that the Canadian economy grew by 3.7% (well above Analyst expectations) in the second quarter of 2019 compared to the second quarter of 2018 (April to June) and has also performed very well in most months since, we must be doing something right. For comparison the US economy grew by 2.0% during the same period.

Budget

Since coming to power, the Liberals have rolled out some changes to our tax system. Based on the numbers that have been released the top 1% paid slightly more in taxes in 2017 compared to 2014 and everyone else paid a little less. This resulted in a small increase in overall tax revenues while allowing the middle class and below to pay less. There was also changes made to corporate and small business taxes and tax credits. As promised in 2015, the Liberals cut small business tax (a small business has less than $500,000 a year in revenue) from 10.5% to 9%. However, at the same time they made it harder for small businesses to simply give family members a portion of their profit thereby decreasing corporate profits and reducing your overall company tax unless you could show these family members were actually adding value to the business. On the corporate side there weren’t any major changes to the taxes but when the US rolled out a major corporate tax cut (dropped from 29.8% to 18.7%) the Liberals responded with a $16 billion competitiveness plan which they said would effectively drop the corporate tax rate from 17% to 13.8%.

Other than the inverted yield curve, the Canadian economy is showing practically no signs of a recession. All this despite the fact that oil and gas industry makes up a significant part of our economy and oil prices continue to sit very low. Canada is missing out on $130 billion a year to our economy with Alberta’s economy lagging behind. We may not be headed towards a balanced budget but our debt to GDP ratio is getting better every year regardless, meaning if a recession did hit then there should still be plenty of room to run temporarily larger deficits to boost the economy paired with cutting interest rates.

Environment

In April, the federal carbon tax came into effect for all provinces that decided not to impose one up to the federal standards. The federal carbon tax was based on similar carbon taxes that have been rolled out not only around the world but also in BC. In 2008, BC became the first jurisdiction in North America to roll out a broad-based carbon tax. A recent study has shown that the carbon tax has kept BCs greehouse gas (GHG) levels at essentially the same level as 2007 while the BC economy has grown significantly (at times BC was the strongest economy in Canada) and produced and exported significant amounts of coal.

Although the carbon tax may not be enough to hit the emission numbers Canada needs to hit, it is a step in the right direction. BC’s carbon tax is considered so effective because it was gradually brought in. Starting at $5 per tonne in 2008, hitting $30 a tonne by 2012 and to meet federal requirements $40 ($0.0889 per litre of gas) a tonne in 2019. The federal carbon tax is expected to reduce GHGs 50-60 million tonnes by 2022.

While many environmentalists applaud the Liberals for rolling out the carbon tax (while also saying a lot more needs to be done), most criticize the Liberals for another move they have made. This May the Government bought the Trans Canada Mountain Pipeline that will allow triple the capacity of oil to be shipped from Alberta to the BC coast. Environmentalists say that this will increase the activity in the oil sands thus increasing Canada’s GHG levels instead of decreasing them. The Liberals say not only will this pipeline benefit our economy but it actually benefits the environment as well. They say that Alberta oil sands will continue to increase production regardless but instead just ship more oil by rail. Pipeline capacity has been full for sometime so shipments by rail are increasing rapidly. In 2017, the oil industry shipped approximately 140,000 barrels by rail per day. In 2018, the amount of oil being shipped by rail was approximately 300,000 barrels per day. In early 2019, then Premier of Alberta Notley committed to buying enough rail cars to ship an additional 120,000 barrels per day. Because of this the Liberals say not only will this solve Canadian Oil Problems but it will also actually help the environment.

Housing

The Liberals rolled out a their $40 billion Housing Benefit Plan which aims to cut homelessness by 50%, build 100,00 new units, repair 300,000 existing units, providing 300,000 households with financial assistance so they don’t lose their homes, ensuring 385,000 households don’t lose their existing affordable homes and more. They also rolled out a first time home buyers incentive helping qualifying first time home buyers with 5 to 10% of their down payment.

Anita wants to buy a new home for $400,000.
Under the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, Anita can apply to receive $40,000 in a shared equity mortgage (10% of the cost of a new home) from the Government of Canada. This lowers the amount she needs to borrow and reduces her monthly expenses.
As a result, Anita’s mortgage is $228 less a month or $2,736 a year. – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

While most of these items have made it easier for individuals to either keep their homes or get a new home, stricter mortgage rules also made it more difficult to get a mortgage. This rule changes were designed to increase individual Canadian’s exponentially increasing personal debt and ensure with rising interest rates, no Canadian would have to declare bankruptcy because they could no longer afford to pay their mortgage. The side effect of this was people qualifying for smaller amounts when going for a mortgage thus making it harder to buy a home in some markets. It also had a secondary side effect of slowing down housing markets across the country and adding to other pressures causing housing prices to decrease further in some markets like Vancouver. The benchmark rate to qualify for a mortgage was decreased by 25 basis points (0.25%) earlier this year and should alleviate should of the pressure added by these changes.

Health Care

For Health Care it is luckily fairly simple what the Liberals did.

  1. Increased funding to the Public Health Agency of Canada by $15 million in 2016-2017
  2. Increased the options and availability of mental health services, particularly focused on high quality options.
  3. Began the process cross-provincial group to collaborate on health innovation which will work on drug prices, mental health and home care
  4. Restored a program that provided temporary and limited benefits to refugees

Education

There was nothing major regarding education completed by the Liberals in the past 4 years.

Gun Control

The primary achievement related to gun control for the Liberals was Bill C-71.

The bill primarily covers non-restricted rifles and shotguns, with renewed requirements for validation of licences before the sale or transfer of long guns and mandatory record keeping for gun dealers and retailers.

Bill C-71 also extends background checks for licence applications and renewals — which could extend back for a lifetime instead of a five-year check under the previous law.

The legislation, however, also repeals Conservative amendments to the Criminal Code that gave cabinet the power to overrule RCMP classifications for restricted and prohibited firearms. – iPolitics

Indigenous

This is an issue too complicated to breakdown in just a simple few paragraphs because there is so much going on. So instead I will just list all the promises Justin Trudeau and the Liberals had made in regards to the First Nations and where the promise was kept, partially kept or in progress with a link on further details. Please note all this whole section is from Polimeter.

  1. Invest $300 million in additional annual funding for the First Nations education system for kindergarten through grade 12 programs. – In Progress
  2. Invest $500 million over 2015 to 2018 for building and refurbishing First Nations schools. – Completed
  3. Invest $50 million in additional annual funding to the Post-Secondary Student Support Program. – Broken
  4. Provide new funding to help Indigenous communities promote and preserve Indigenous languages and cultures. – Completed
  5. Develop a Métis Economic Development Strategy with $25 million funding over five years. – Completed
  6. Establish a federal claims process that recognizes Métis self-government and resolves outstanding claims. – Broken
  7. Make permanent the funding available to provincial Métis communities for Métis identification and registration. – In Progress
  8. Enact the recommendations of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. – Broken
  9. End boil-water advisories within five years for 93 communities on First Nations reserves currently affected by poor water quality. – In Progress
  10. Fund the Freedom Road project for Shoal Lake 40 First Nation. – Completed
  11. Guarantee that First Nation communities have a veto over natural resource development in their territories. – Broken
  12. Immediately adopt the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP). – Broken
  13. Immediately lift the two percent cap on funding for First Nations programs. – Broken
  14. Implement the objectives of the Kelowna Accord. – Not Started
  15. Launch a national public inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls in Canada. – Completed
  16. Review, repeal and amend all existing laws that do not respect Indigenous rights or that were passed without proper consultation. – Not Started
  17. The Prime Minister will meet with First Nations, Métis Nation, and Inuit leaders at least once every year. – Completed

Global Status

There is no doubt that many people around the world love Canadians. It’s no surprise that global Canadian stereotypes are about how much we say “sorry”, “eh”, “thank you”. Bianca Andreescu went viral because she apologized to the fans in the stadium after she beat Serena Williams in the US Open since they were cheering for her. Canada and many major cities in Canada have consistently ranked highly in many global rankings for best places to live or quality of life. However, where do we sit on the global stage in terms of influence?

In 2011 and then even more so in 2015, many people said Canada had lost it’s place on the global stage and had fallen significantly behind. Since then under the Liberal Government has said they will make dramatic changes and bring Canada back to the global stage. In 2017 a global Ipsos poll ranked Canada as having the most positive influence on global affairs. With US taking a major step back in global affairs since Donald Trump, this has opened the space for Canada to take a big step forward. Canada has been making it’s voice heard loud and clear on global issues whether they be about Free Trade and the World Trade Council, the United Nations, human right issues or climate change. They have also been refocusing our global foreign aid to the countries that need it the most and with a focus on Maternal, Newborn and Child Health.

Scandals/Ethics

The last 4 years were not without any scandals. There are 2 major scandals that took place over this last term and one of them happening very recently. The SNC-Lavalin scandal is a very long and complex one so rather than going into it I will point you to the 2 part post I wrote about it. Take a look here:

SNC-Lavalin Scandal – Part 1

SNC-Lavalin Scandal – Part 2

The second major scandal happened in January 2017. In late 2016, Justin Trudeau was essentially gifted a trip by Aga Khan. Aga Khan has a private Island in the Bahamas, Trudeau and his family took a trip free of charge to this island but Aga Khan also gifted Trudeau a bag while Trudeau gifted him a sweater. Although we do not know the value of this bag, we do know it was under the value required to pay duty when returning to Canada ($800). This was deemed an ethics violation and a judge earlier this year ordered the Lobbying Commissioner to investigate any lobbying violations.

Next Steps

This post gives a fairly extensive breakdown on what the Liberal party has done over the past 4 years. Although important to understand it is also important to understand all party platforms in order to make an informed voting decision. CBC and Macleans both do an extensive breakdown of all the party platforms and should provide you with ample decision on who to vote for. I would recommend reading both. I also recommend reading the National Observers article that breaks down in detail each parties plan for the Economy and Environment and gives them a grade.

CBC Election Platform Guide

Macleans Election Platform Guide

National Observer Environmental and Economy Election Platform Grading

Are you still confused on who to vote for? I highly recommend taking a look at the CBC vote compass tool. This tool allows you to fill out a 5 to 10 minute survey and will tell you which party your personal views best align with.

 

Sources: National Post; Financial Post; Financial Post; Financial Post; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; CBC News; Trudeau Metre; The Atlantic; UNHCR; Immigration; Baystreet; Global News; Global News; CTV News; KRP; IRPP; The Tyee; Government of BC; iPolitics; The Globe and Mail; The Globe and Mail; The Star; BBC; Forbes; Ipsos; CMHC;